Sports Handicapping: What If The NFL Changes Overtime Rules?
There is lots of discussion within the media lately regarding possibly creating changes for the overtime rules in NFL games. In one group you will find people who really feel there is no crisis observing teams slug it out against each other for 60 minutes, simply to have what ought to function as most exciting part with the game get determined on a singular possession in which a team just has to maneuver the ball 30-40 yards which sets up a perfect winning Field Goal.
On the other hand there are guys like commissioner Roger Goodell who feel that if you’re not able to win a game within the first hour, then you should have no problem with how it gets decided after that hour and of course, no handicapping issues. This is a worthless discussion, but one that bears talking about a little bit.
What is disturbing is what a change in the rules could mean for sports wagering and sports handicapping. The NFL clearly owes some of it’s huge popularity to the simple fact that it is the most gambled on sports game in the USA. If they chose an over time plan like the college version, what would that to – either positive or negative – to the lines that are put on national football league games?
If they do go ahead with the changes, think about this: say you place a bet on a game with a posted final of forty-two. However, after the regular game ends the score is tied up at 14. Because of this, your wager for the match not coming in under the posted final looks really good, yes? Ok, then let’s assume the OT rules were more like it is in college when both sides get the football no matter what.
Let’s say they both score a TD in overtime. Right now you could be have as much as 42 points. Then one more OT having a couple field goals, after which one more having a field goal to win it. You went from getting a great chance with the game landing on the complete of 31 with the usual overtime determining field goal, to getting a game exactly where the total went up as much as 51. This all in what exactly is essentially ‘stop time’ or having no more time left to run off the clock.
The NFL doesn’t have to go to the college system, but things have to change. The OT rules as they are now, are busted. Let’s think about it, you have the coin flip become more conductive to the outcome of the game than anything else. That’s crazy, yet stats show that the coin toss winner wins an incredible 60% of games. Usually the team who loses the coin flip never even gets the ball. The rule should be that if both sides score the same amount in a tossup, then you use sudden death OT.
So when we’re talking about sports handicapping, I think the NFL should be more like soccer when it comes to betting rules. In games and even big tournaments, when there is even the chance of OT, the wagering line doesn’t even acknowledge these frames. This is why they use a draw line; when the match is over and ends in a tie after regulation, the two teams could continue to play on until someone wins.
My thoughts are that the national football league should have the same rules as soccer, but especially when or if the over time rules are modified. If you allow the game to continue on for betting reasons after the hour is up there will be no bloated scores that mock betting lines. Thus the rules should be changed to accentuate the players; not the coin flip, I feel that the betting rules also have to change.
Rich Allen is an expert in Sports Handicapping. His Sports Betting Professor Systems have sold over 250,000 units and cover all major sports. Download a FREE copy of The Sports Betting Insider’s Guide at: http://richallensports.com/sports-handicapping