The Gamblers Fallacy
There is one thing that will destroy you if you are not careful. I’ve seen this one thing completely annihilate the bankrolls of new players to online roulette studs. It doesn’t matter if you have been around forever, or if you are just starting out.
The one thing that I’m talking about is known as The Gambler’s Fallacy. The Gambler’s Fallacy has been tricking players into making bad bets for centuries, possibly longer than that. If you take your money seriously you must be constantly vigilant against The Gambler’s Fallacy.
To sum it up quickly The Gambler’s Fallacy is the wrongly held belief that past random acts of probability will influence future random acts of probability. For example if a coin is flipped three times in a row and lands on heads, the next flip is not more likely to be tails.
The idea that the roulette table has some sort of memory and makes things balance out is entirely false. The roulette table does not care about what the last spin was, and before every spin the odds are reset to what they normally are.
What makes The Gambler’s Fallacy so deadly is that if somebody who is not versed in mathematics looks at a simple version of the odds it would appear that there is no fallacy. The math would indicate that no such fallacy exists.
To demonstrate what I mean I’ll give you two examples, one example showing why it might look like there is no fallacy. I will then give another example going deeper into the odds to show that The Gambler’s Fallacy exists for a reason.
Imagine that zero is not a factor at the online roulette table. This would make the odds of the ball landing on red 50%. Now if one looks at the math they will see that the chance of the ball landing on red is smaller than 50% and for three times it is even smaller, and so forth. So the chance of the ball landing on red several times in a row is drastically smaller than 50%, and the odds of the ball landing on black are 50%. So at first it looks like it is way more likely to go black after several reds. But when the math is done the odds of the ball going red, red, red, black and red, red, red, red are exactly the same.
There is no reason that The Gambler’s Fallacy should destroy your bankroll. However it will as soon as you let it. If you want to do well at online roulette you must take this threat seriously otherwise it could completely and utterly destroy you.
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